On June 6th, gold stocks opened collectively high. As of the time of writing, Zhaojin Mining (01818.HK) rose by 5.94%, Lingbao Gold (03330.HK) surged by more than 5%, Zijin Mining (02899.HK) increased by 4.39%, China Gold International (02099.HK) gained 3.2%, and Shandong Gold (01787.HK) followed suit with a rise.
In terms of news, a wave of interest rate cuts by central banks around the world may be imminent. This trend is expected to enhance the appeal of gold and provide support for its price increase.
Specifically, on Wednesday, the United States released its May ADP employment data, showing that the number of new jobs added was only 152,000, significantly below the market expectation of 175,000. This weak data further confirmed the early signs of a cooling U.S. labor market. The market widely anticipates that this could push the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates earlier than expected later this year.
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Additionally, on Wednesday, the Bank of Canada announced its June interest rate decision, declaring a 25 basis point cut to the benchmark rate to 4.75%, becoming the first G7 country to cut interest rates in this global monetary cycle.
Tonight, the European Central Bank will also have its June interest rate decision, with the market widely expecting a 25 basis point cut, marking the first rate cut in nine years.
At the same time, many analysts predict that the Bank of England, which will hold its monetary policy meeting in two weeks, may also follow the footsteps of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.
As central banks around the world take successive interest rate cut actions, the market's bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut have heated up.
It is reported that the Federal Reserve will hold a two-day monetary policy meeting starting on June 11th to discuss the next steps in interest rates. Market analysis suggests that although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to take rate cut measures at the June monetary policy meeting, the easing practices of other non-U.S. central banks may exert some pressure on the Federal Reserve, forcing it to also open the interest rate cut channel for the year.
Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has a value independent of the economic cycle. When the market anticipates a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, investors tend to increase their demand for gold, thereby driving up the price of gold.On Thursday, the price of gold continued to rise, with the spot gold (XAUUSD) price reaching a high of $2,374.43 per ounce at one point.
From the current perspective, many institutions still maintain a bullish stance on the future trend of gold.
In a recent research report, UBS significantly raised its forecast for gold prices. The bank increased its full-year average gold price forecast and its year-end target price by 8%, to $2,365 per ounce and $2,600 per ounce, respectively.
The bank expects that over the next two years, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical risks will continue to drive strong demand for gold from central banks worldwide, pushing gold prices higher, with an expectation that gold prices will break through $2,800 per ounce during this period. At the same time, UBS also raised its long-term gold price forecast from $1,750 per ounce to $1,950 per ounce.